Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 57956.193650 61373.216332 64796.079834 68479.333917 72327.998421 76228.081771 80476.301091
2024-10-27 52100.478586 57288.177323 62637.594637 68557.271782 74915.700295 81531.428718 88926.439551
2024-11-03 48717.112314 55163.266614 61961.296232 69646.717028 78075.504265 87019.896634 97210.503318
2024-11-10 45977.468769 53362.622676 61298.602934 70430.989212 80619.321125 91605.455046 104316.249755
2024-11-17 43505.116177 51610.165877 60465.233421 70814.468470 82532.740366 95343.987549 110362.444002
2024-11-24 41174.148150 49834.632605 59440.707440 70826.455165 83891.333197 98351.715362 115502.274035
2024-12-01 39334.156833 48491.512261 58789.983308 71152.910718 85510.505256 101577.877564 120833.353263
2024-12-08 37543.167262 47097.349444 57983.112295 71208.159874 86739.933902 104299.906772 125546.731267
2024-12-15 36481.834873 46494.983412 58038.891807 72214.884402 89030.863776 108216.266295 131627.390598
2024-12-22 34885.890146 45173.563717 57174.908909 72071.242567 89917.940816 110462.746112 135742.438792
2024-12-29 34105.098469 44794.931305 57397.446837 73189.160535 92274.983783 114420.057432 141868.198660
2025-01-05 33170.688802 44180.811661 57295.581745 73882.024702 94099.508539 117737.027769 147241.476554
2025-01-12 31949.642027 43179.670969 56700.795824 73965.855040 95195.720152 120211.722275 151661.848942
2025-01-19 30660.456811 42046.256453 55902.498597 73764.526299 95919.336947 122226.776529 155534.067318
2025-01-26 30081.191715 41787.359605 56168.582286 74862.699074 98225.536571 126153.729435 161729.508757
2025-02-02 29411.924621 41382.885792 56227.155382 75682.180555 100176.680786 129649.586023 167416.708572
2025-02-09 28595.255970 40754.694196 55974.508091 76086.077271 101594.646614 132487.386325 172307.242717
2025-02-16 27651.731401 39925.865976 55434.964871 76098.327099 102500.798801 134683.400212 176408.771434
2025-02-23 26904.631193 39330.447385 55172.364556 76443.959701 103812.810780 137376.025430 181129.504311
2025-03-02 26075.743465 38596.910659 54704.714456 76502.449995 104743.050936 139584.547145 185250.872632
2025-03-09 25705.265424 38468.849165 55018.931685 77568.457028 106960.052912 143412.091030 191414.208724
2025-03-16 24861.919489 37667.172947 54418.630938 77416.365874 107593.568578 145237.336706 195066.084150
2025-03-23 24585.315816 37636.104312 54836.017319 78599.946029 109957.308476 149262.254034 201513.984409